Should You Buy SpaceX Stock Below $125 per Share? Here’s What History Says

The recent decline in SpaceX stock prices has left many investors wondering if this is an opportunity to buy into one of the hottest companies on the market. But before making any investment decisions, it’s worth examining the historical context of Elon Musk’s other publicly traded venture, Tesla.

Tesla’s IPO was a groundbreaking moment in 2010, but its stock performance over the next few years left much to be desired. At the time, the company had sold only around 1,000 vehicles, and it would take until mid-2013 for Tesla’s stock to start gaining significant traction. This slow start is notable, given that many investors expect rapid growth from new public companies.

A comparison of Tesla’s trajectory with SpaceX’s is complicated by the different stages of development each was in when they went public. However, one thing is clear: patience has been a key component of successful investment strategies in both companies. Elon Musk’s leadership style emphasizes aggressive growth and innovation, which can lead to rapid changes in stock prices.

The current state of SpaceX presents a complex landscape for investors. With its recent earnings report and lockup periods ending in 2026 and 2027, the market is experiencing an unusual dynamic. Some investors may be tempted to jump into the market now, hoping to capitalize on potential gains. However, history suggests that waiting could be the smarter move.

The impact of insider investor lockup periods cannot be overstated. These events create supply-and-demand imbalances, causing stock prices to fluctuate wildly. In SpaceX’s case, these periods end at different times in 2026 and 2027, which may further complicate investment decisions.

Investors would do well to remember that even Elon Musk’s most successful ventures have taken time to mature. While Tesla’s one-year return was a respectable 16%, it wasn’t until mid-2013 that the company started to take off as an investment opportunity. And even then, there were several years of relatively flat returns before the stock truly began to soar.

SpaceX is a far more established business than Tesla was at its IPO, with a proven track record in the space industry. Yet, investors should not be swayed by short-term gains or the allure of being an early adopter. The temptation to rush into the market now would be wise to resist.

Instead, investors should take a page from history and exercise patience. Waiting for the first year to complete may seem like an eternity, but it could prove to be a savvy move in the long run. By waiting until mid-2027, when all lockup periods have ended and more clarity can be gained on SpaceX’s performance, investors will be better equipped to make informed decisions about their investments.

Ultimately, the decision of whether or not to buy into SpaceX at current prices comes down to timing. While it may be tempting to jump in now, history suggests that waiting could be the smarter move.